Lessons from Lewistown
By: John A. Baden, Ph.D.Posted on June 16, 2004 FREE Insights Topics:
In a recent High Country News column, Mark from Missoula lamented: “I’ve given up on one of the great American dreams -- owning a home of my own.” He protests: “[I]t’s becoming impossible to find affordable housing in the West, even in the non-resort towns.” He’s wrong.
Both his logic and data are flawed. Perhaps he simply enjoys whining. But assuming he’s sincere, I’d like to reassure him, then explain the dynamics of housing prices, and finally offer guidance.
Ramona and I have just returned from a 3,300-mile road trip through rural America. We deliberately retraced some of routes I drove in the ’60s when studying the economic success of the Hutterite communities in the Northern Plains.
Most towns, in decline 40 years ago, are now in even more sorry shape. Stores are boarded up; churches, schools, and even bars have closed. Here’s why.
Farms and ranches have consolidated and machinery is far larger. Some tractors have 12 wheels, 6-by-6 all-wheel-drive monsters. Tillage implements have grown accordingly. In Iowa, we visited a small factory that builds 24-row corn planters. Larger, better equipment decreases the demand for manual labor. With decreasing numbers of jobs in agriculture, the population in agricultural areas decreases. Additionally, farming is now at best a minor contributor to Montana’s economy. While 12.3 percent of the state’s income came from farm and agricultural services in 1970, by 2000 the number was only 1.9 percent.
As a result of such technical progress, it takes fewer people to run a farm. The region is “hollowing out.” I find this sad -- but inevitable. Aside from counties with Indian reservations, only two in North Dakota gained significant population from 1990 to 2000 -- and half lost 10 percent or more. The two gainers include Fargo and Grand Forks. Both host (and boast) universities. This is no accident. Montana is topographically different but economically comparable.
In contrast to those in decline, college towns like Bozeman and Missoula have achieved dramatic population increases. In 2000, the population in Bozeman was 243 percent of what it was in 1950; Missoula’s population grew 253 percent over the same period.
Ramona and I spent our last night of the trip in Lewistown, a truly charming town. Judging by its wonderful architecture, it peaked in about 1917. Today, most of the beautiful stone and brick business buildings are underutilized or empty.
At first blush, Lewistown seems to have everything: scenery, the Snowy Mountains, Showdown ski area, an airport linked to cities, great hunting and fishing. It lacks only the amenities associated with a college or university.
Towns without these qualities find it increasingly difficult to attract middle-class Americans. Hence, Lewistown is not a magnet town. The population in 2000 was only three-quarters of what it was in 1960. As a result, housing there and in many other towns lacking a four-year college is extremely inexpensive.
These housing prices reflect the basic principles of supply and demand. Houses are durable, so the supply of houses decreases slowly. But when the demand for houses in a town decreases (due to reduced population in this case), the price drops dramatically.
Mark, if you want to buy a house in our region, look in towns like Lewistown, i.e., ones without a college. How about a two-bedroom house for $45,000 or a three-bedroom for $67,500 -- and these are asking prices. How much land do you want with your house? In the first ten minutes of shopping on the Internet, I found a 20-acre horse ranch near Glasgow for an asking price of only $66,000.
If you’d like to stay near Missoula, consider one of the dozens of properties between $45,000 and $85,000. (No mobile homes included here.) At the top is a four-bedroom house on a 14-acre waterfront lot. Or you can find a two-bedroom house in Alberton for $45,000.
Mark, don’t give up on your dream of home ownership in Montana -- but don’t fantasize that all good things can go together. If a town has the full complement of culture, amenities, services, and conveniences, it will attract successful families. They will bid up prices. Unfortunately for you, that’s the way the world works.
FREE’s summer interns Hallee Morgan and David Sands contributed to this piece.