Montana’s culture, economy, housing patterns, transportation, and politics all evolved assuming we’d enjoy cheap and plentiful energy over the long-term. Low priced energy guided our development and social patterns. I recall occasionally driving to Butte just for dinner in the ‘70s. Many Bozeman friends did likewise, and Billings was a casual destination with little thought of fuel cost.

Our history testifies to this fixation and dependence on inexpensive energy. In 1913, when the Milwaukee Railroad decided to electrify, hydropower was cheap. The Milwaukee ran its first electric powered train between Three Forks and Deer Lodge in 1914. Milwaukee management reputedly believed Northern Rockies’ demand for electricity would never reach the quantity supplied by free water. Ironically, the Milwaukee abandoned its electric motors for diesel in 1973, just before the first oil crisis made diesel twice as expensive as electric power.

The Federal Highway Act passed in 1956 gave us I-90. It subsidized commutes while gas cost a third of today’s price. Why not live in Three Forks or commute from Livingston? The Highway Act helped lock us, and nearly all Americans, into reliance on petroleum.

Today, with oil selling at about $140 a barrel and gas, diesel, and aviation jet fuel nearing $5 per gallon, our living patterns will change, although not easily or without cost. We’ll adjust to these signals, for prices convey information about scarcities while providing strong incentives to respond.

Further, although we will rely upon petroleum for decades, a new, post-petroleum culture is emerging. Among its features is an emphasis on bicycling for transportation. Yes, even in Bozeman, land of the 4x4 pickup and SUV.

And, of course, business responds to these new conditions. Here’s one example. Performance Bike, a national firm, is sending out this e-mail: “More Bike, Less Car Cheaper, Cleaner, Healthier...Deals to help your commute>> (click here).” Doing so merely takes one to an array of panniers, racks, and clothing.

How hard would it be to go about a normal day using only a bike? I bike a lot, one year just over 5,000 miles, so this was a pleasing challenge. I experimented and found it enjoyable, but a bit stressful. Here’s that day, probably much like those of others who live out of town.

First, I rode to work. This is a pleasant 10-mile, 40-minute trip with one hill. This commute took only twice the drive time. I had a lunch meeting and riding there took 17 minutes and back to work the same. After lunch I rode back home to check ranch irrigation and talk with a hand.

I had another meeting at 3:00 to debrief FREE’s conference on environmental breakthroughs. If I were to be on time, I’d have to push hard to make it. Another 10 miles. Biking home after the meeting brought the day to exactly 50 miles, a savings of some two gallons of fuel, about $10.

My average speed was 14 MPH, about one third what a car would average on these trips. Biking saved a little money, but cost me nearly two hours. This implies my time is worth less than minimum wage. (And I discounted to zero the time spent showering to make myself presentable for appointments.)

Given that we live on a working ranch ten miles from town, biking is not always a practical alternative, however enjoyable it may be. This wouldn’t change even if fuel prices rose to $10 or $20 per gallon. However, we will change our behavior, economizing on the margins.

Price signals provide incentives to bunch our trips, drive more slowly, and select an economical, more fuel-efficient vehicle, sometimes even a bike. If we’re lucky and blessed with good weather, perhaps we can bike commute six months a year when time schedules permit. And they too will be adjusted.

That’s the way the world works when prices tell folks to take other’s demands into account. Higher prices tell us that others throughout the world are making their demands felt. And as energy becomes more expensive, Bozeman folks will respond. If energy stays high there will surely be transformations in our lives, some fundamental. Economics suggests the directions they will take.